Is the Government Shutting Down Again this 2026? Here’s the Latest

Washington is facing a tense deadline. With the US Senate heading toward a midnight Jan. 30, 2026, funding deadline, no deal is in place, raising the risk of another government shutdown.

Why the Risk is Rising

The immediate trigger is a funding dispute for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which covers agencies like ICE and Border Patrol.

Senate Democrats are demanding reforms following recent enforcement actions, while Republicans push to approve funding to keep agencies operational.
 

Shutdown Odds Spike

Prediction markets are signaling higher risk:

• Polymarket: 67% chance of shutdown

• Kalshi: 65% chance

Just a week ago, the risk was only 11%. These markets show how quickly confidence is fading as the deadline approaches.
 

What a Shutdown Means

Even a partial shutdown can cause:

• Furloughs for federal employees

• Delayed paychecks

• Paused services for the public

• Disruptions for contractors and local governments
   

Why This Feels Different

The long 43-day 2025 shutdown still looms in memory. Current disputes focus on enforcement policies rather than overall spending, making compromise tricky.

Long-term markets suggest a 75% chance of some shutdown in 2026, signaling broader instability concerns.

What’s Next

The Senate will continue negotiations and votes through Friday.

Without a deal, partial shutdowns could start early Saturday, with uncertainty over who works and which services pause.

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